Football Champions

The "other" club from Spain's capital city is all that stands between Fulham FC and an unprecedented European triumph. Yes, Fulham are in the Europa League final, just like we had predicted, which at the time prompted the inevitable scoffing from haters worldwide.

But let's not bask in the glory of being right. Actually, wait. Let's. So we were right. Na, na, na. Eat it bitches!

Now moving right along let's look at Fulham's opponent in this afternoon's finale. Atletico Madrid are due to finish ninth or 10th in Spain's La Liga. That's not very good, particularly in a year where only one Spanish team made it past the Champions League quarterfinals. Their recent form is not very good either. They've won just two of their last seven Spanish league matches and those wins were over Valladolid and Tenerife who are 16th and 17th in the 20-team league, respectively.

Atletico were themselves a Champions League team, drawn into a group with Chelsea, Porto and APOEL Nikosia. They were pretty horrible, managing just three points from the six matches. How they managed to finish third with this type of record is pretty incredible.

But if you look a little deeper, particularly at their results the second half of the season, you will see this is a team that can hang with absolutely anybody. Their crowning achievement (so far) was a 2-1 defeat of Barcelona on Feb. 14. They also dropped Valencia (4-1), Atletic Bilbao (2-0) and Deportivo La Coruna (3-0), three teams that are ahead of them in the Spanish table. While none of the teams they vanquished (Sporting Lisbon, Galatasaray, Valencia and Liverpool) en route to today's Europa League final will set the world on fire, each is certainly very decent in its own right. Liverpool, despite being crap, were playing for their season at that point. But then again, Liverpool are crap.

Lest we forget they also advanced to the Copa del Rey final, where they face Sevilla May 19.

As for Atletico's players, Fulham will want to test whoever they put in goal. The team's first team goalkeeper, Spanish U-21 international Sergio Asenjo, was injured in their last league game. Atletico have apparently not yet decided on who will replace him, but both are young lads themselves.

The rojiblancos have a formidable strike force with Uruguay's Diego Forlan and Jose Antonio Reyes, Argentines Sergio Aguero and Eduardo Salvio and Portugal's Simao. Forlan, Aguero and Simao were all named to their countries' 30-man World Cup training camp rosters. So was midfielder Tiago (Portugal). Fulham meanwhile boast Clint Dempsey (USA), Mark Schwarzer (Australia), John Pantsil (Ghana) the unfortunately named Kagisho Dikgacoi, who will play for the host country, though he doesn't see much time for Cottagers. Neither club is sending players to their home nation's World Cup side. Obviously Bobby Zamora wasn't needed by Fabio Cappello because England are so deep at striker. Uh, right...

Anyway, enjoy the match. Post your predictions here.

Clint Dempsey's super goal (click link for YouTube video) put Fulham FC past Juventus in the return leg of their round of 16 Europa League matchup yesterday. From an American point of view, the dramatic goal re-establishes Dempsey as a first rate star after a lengthy break from injury. It also sheds any remaining doubt on whether he will be ready for the World Cup in June. He will be ready and England, whom the U.S. face June 12, should be afraid, very afraid. But with the European club campaign now in high season, these are all secondary concerns at this point.

The Juventus match-up will likely turn out to be the last real continental challenge Fulham get for some time due to the gift Roy Hodgson's side today received from the Union of European Footballers Associations (UEFA). The gift is a spot in the Europa League final, May 12 in Hamburg, Germany, where Cottagers will likely face Benfica Lisbon (if the latest Soccer Source Top 25 is any guide).

All Fulham need to do in return is defeat a pair of mediocre clubs in the quarterfinals and semis. But this task is so easy, all that can be said at this point is this: The only way Fulham will not play in the Europa League final is if they beat themselves.

I exaggerate somewhat, but not much. Let's take a look at Fulham's first opponent for the quarterfinals, VfL Wolfsburg. Yes, the "Wolves" are defending Bundesliga champions and were in our top 25 at the start of the season. But this is a club that sits eighth in the German Bundesliga, which is an extremely top-heavy (and frankly somewhat mediocre, at least at this point) league. They did end up in a tough Champions League group with Man United, CSKA Moscow and Besiktas Istanbul and to their credit didn't finish last. But in the first round of the Europa League elimination draw they lucked out with Villareal, who are having an absolutely horrible season. And their defeat of Rubin Kazan, who were ranked 14th in our Top 25, probably would not have happened had it not taken place when the Russian league was barely out of preseason. This is a club (Wolfsburg) that has this season lost home games to the likes of Cologne and Nurnberg--as well as to Bayern Munich, VfB Stuttgart and Man United, among others. Whatever. The point is Wolfsburg should not be a problem for Cottagers.

Next up they'll face either another German club, Hamburg SV, or Standard Liege from Belgium in the semifinals. Again: both mediocre clubs from mediocre leagues (or worse in Standard's case). Hamburg's Bundesliga campaign was not unlike Wolfsburg's, though marginally better (they sit fourth to Wolfsburg's eighth). Their European season kicked off with a 3-0 defeat to Rapid Vienna. They have a few "quality wins" to their credit, but this was against clubs (PSV Eindhoven, RSC Anderlecht) that were marginal top 25 sides at best. They'll put up a fight against Fulham (these are Germans, after all) but should not be able to advance at Cottagers' expense. Again, unless Fulham let them.

One could make the point that Fulham would be contenders for a Champions League spot in virtually any league other than the Premiership. Hodgson's team were every bit Roma's equal in the Europa League group stage, drawing the Italian side at Craven Cottage and losing at the Stadio Olimpico after a 1-0 halftime lead. Roma are third in Serie A. Fulham bested defending Europa/UEFA League champs Shakhtar Donetsk and of course defeated Man U and Liverpool earlier this season. Oh wait, everybody's been beating Liverpool this season. Well, the Man U win was impressive.

Of course once they make the final things could get a bit more difficult. Benfica are arguably the best non-Champions League club this season. The team we deem the ninth-best in the world at present is also our pick to take home the first ever Europa League trophy. Then again, with Dempsey at peak form anything is possible. Even some European silverware for the Craven Cottage trophy case.

Photo taken from Sky Sports without permission.

This post grew out of an ongoing discussion on the BigSoccer sewing circle. The idea is to gauge exactly how accurate (or not) our Top 25 rankings are as an indicator of future results. We got into this a little bit with our initial prediction of the Champions League round of 16, but those rankings were stale by the time the actual games kicked off last week.

But now, with these matchups either halfway done (in the case of the Champions League) or decided (Europa League) we figured the time would be right to revisit the issue. That, and there is nothing to do at the dayjob today due to all the snow we're having in New York. Anyway, here goes:

Barcelona (No. 1 at last ranking) vs. Stuttgart (unranked)
The top team in our rankings had to struggle to get a 1-1 away draw against a team that has not even been on our radar as far as top clubs are concerned. While this is potentially troubling, can there really be any doubt Barca will trounce the German side at Camp Nou in the return leg? No, there cannot really. Besides, everybody in the world predicted Barca to advance so if we get this wrong we're hardly in the minority.

Inter Milan (2) vs. Chelsea (3)
Our rankings predicted a very tight matchup between two top teams and that is what it got. Inter took the first leg 2-1 at home. The advantage is to Chelsea in the return leg by virtue of the away goal, but this can still go either way--just like we had predicted.

Real Madrid (4) vs. Olympique Lyon (20)
According to our rankings, Real is clearly the superior club. Yet they lost the first leg at Lyon 1-0 and have their work cut out for them in the return leg. This would be a major upset in our book. But maybe our ranking of Real is inflated? After all this is a club whose biggest achievement was a 3-2 win at Valencia in December. We shall see.

Manchester United (5) vs. AC Milan (13)
We have Man U as the superior club so we aren't at all surprised by their 3-2 away win in the first leg. Sure, Milan could still come back but they will have to score at least twice at Old Trafford to do so.

Girondins Bordeaux (6) vs. Olympiakos (17)
The French club demonstrated their supriority in a 1-0 away win in the first leg. They're in the driver's seat to prove us right. Allez les Girondins!

Bayern Munich (7) vs. Fiorentina (unranked)
Bayern struggled to win 2-1 in the home leg, looking nothing like a team that is supposed to be the seventh-best in the world. Fiorentina, to our credit, are not complete strangers to the Top 25, having figured prominently earlier this season. But their run of recent form led us to drop them. If they can win the return leg and advance we'll obviously have to revisit that--not to mention Bayern's perch at 7.

Arsenal (8) vs. Porto (12)
The Soccer Source rankings give Arsenal the edge, though not by much. So we aren't at all surprised by Porto's 2-1 win in the first leg. Even if they are bounced at Emirates on March 9 we can still pat ourselves on the back for this. Unless of course it's a blowout...

AS Roma (9) vs. Panathinaikos
Um, okay we can pretend this didn't happen, right? Roma lost the return leg 3-2 at home, their first defeat in 20 games (we didn't count their first leg loss by the same score since it's part of the same matchup). Oops.

Sevilla (10) vs CSKA Moscow (unranked)
The Spanish side struggled to get a 1-1 away draw in the first leg of their Champions League matchup. That result is somewhat surprising considering Moscow hadn't played a competitive game in months. Less so considering it was played in an arctic climate that is to southern Spain what Vermont is to Miami.

Benfica Lisbon (11) vs. Hertha Berlin
No surprise here. Benfica blew out the German club 4-0 in the first leg and sauntered to a 1-1 draw in the second. They're through to the next round.

PSV Eindhoven (14) vs. Hamburg SV (unranked)
We had been singing PSV's praises all season, while Hamburg has been in and out of the Top 25 (mostly out). Yet the German club proved superiod in a narrow matchup, winning the return leg at home 1-0 after losing the first 3-2. At least PSV kept it close for us.

Rubin Kazan (18) vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv (unranked)
As expected, the Russian side advanced easily 3-0 on aggregate.

Fenerbahce Istanbul (21) vs. OSC Lille (unranked)
Lille have made a few appearances in the top 25 but by the time this Europa League matchup was played Fener had the advantage. Or so we thought. The French club won by scoring a late equalizer in the return leg.

RSC Anderlecht (22) vs. Athletic Bilbao
We were widely ridiculed for putting Anderlecht in our rankings. But who's ridiculous now? The Belgian side trounced the Basques 4-0 in the first leg of their Europa League matchup and coasted to a 1-1 away draw in the second. Most of the soccer world will call this an upset. Not us.

Olympique Marseille (23) vs. FC Copenhagen (unranked)
L'OM advanced easily as our rankings predicted, 6-2 on aggregate.

Shakhtar Donetsk (24) vs. Fulham (unranked)
Ooops. Roy Hodgson's side defeated the defending champs in their Europa League matchup. Oh well.

Liverpool (25) vs. Unirea Urziceni (unranked)
Reds advanced past the Romanian side without too much difficulty. Point for us.

Teams ranked 15 (Bayer Leverkusen), 16 (Valencia) and 19 (Dynamo Kiev) are not actively engaged in European competition.

Tally:
4 wrong
5 accurate
4 pending with our prediction likely correct (visiting team won or drew)
1 pending with our prediction unlikely (home team lost or drew)
3 pending and too close to call

A look at the next round of the Europa League:
Note that victories in the first elimination round have not yet been factored into the ranking. That will take place in the next edition of the Top 25, Monday, March 1:

Benfica (11) vs. Olympique Marseille (23)
Rubin Kazan (18) vs. VfL Wolfsburg (unranked)
Anderlecht (22) vs. HSV (unranked)
Liverpool (25) vs. Lille (unranked)

Photo taken from AccuWeather.com without permission.

If the English Premier League season is a party, consider us (very) fashionably late. But now that we're six games in, the standings are starting to take shape: who would bet against the top four being the same come May? Not yours truly, that's for sure.

After a series of 1-0 wins, Manchester City proved they're for real by tonking Arsenal and giving neighbors United a run for their money. Can they hold off a challenge from Arsenal? Time will tell but, as ever with Arsenal, there are concerns about how brittle they are. By all accounts, Thomas Vermaelen has proved to be a great signing, but does a midfield of Diaby, Eboue, Fabregas and Alex Song have enough steel? Maybe Wenger should have tried harder to keep certain defensive players.

Meanwhile, Chelsea trundle ominously forwards, the only unbeaten team and with a 100% record. The straw many rival fans might cling to is that the African Nations Cup could derail them, what with Drogba, Essien, Kalou and, possibly, Mikel all set to miss at least a month in January/February to play in the competition.

And what of the other top teams? All have been spotty -- Manchester United losing to Burnley but beating Arsenal, City and Spurs, Liverpool losing to Aston Villa and Spurs, and Villa themselves losing to Wigan on opening day. It'll likely be another month or so before we can judge which of them, if any, will mount a credible challenge to Chelsea.

This week's fixture list shouldn't pose too many difficulties for the top teams, though it should be noted Stoke can be tough to beat at home. The most intriguing game may be Fulham v Arsenal -- Fulham, despite a slow start to the season, are among the best of the non-top six teams.

That said, perhaps Hull will shock us all and take points from Liverpool at Anfield. The beauty of football is that you never really know, do you?

--Smoods

Man City badge image supplied by Wikipedia.