Football Champions

To echo our host's views on this, what took place between France and Ireland on Wednesday night really was a travesty. And lo and behold, here to rub salt in still-fresh wounds is soccer's top authority, FIFA.

For those who don't know, FIFA is about as honest, fair-minded and interested in bettering the world as your average African dictator -- and even that's probably an insult to African dictators.

So it really is no surprise when they not only completely reject Ireland's request for a replay, but in doing so refuse to even admit that mistakes were made. These days you get more accountability from a Wall Street CEO.

The post on the topic yesterday mentioned Diego Maradona's infamous Hand of God handball in 1986. Take it from one who was a wee English schoolboy at the time -- that was bad. But it was also somewhat forgivable because the technology wasn't there to have changed the outcome. Fast forward 23 years and we have dozens of cameras covering all angles, high-definition feeds, and sufficient technology to have instant replays pitch-side. It's absurd that for all the changes to the sport, we're still using the same officiating standards that were in place a century ago.

Addendum: Roy Keane has a slightly different take, though he's hardly an impartial observer.

--Smoods

Photo taken from Sportinglife.com without permission.

(Just in case the thousands of others weren't doing it for you).
Thierry Henry's despicable handball in today's deciding World Cup qualifier against the Republic of Ireland was probably the biggest soccer fraud since Diego Maradona's infamous "hand of God" act in 1986. The stakes, then as now, are massive: a quarterfinals berth at the World Cup then, a spot in next year's South Africa tourney now. Then and now the handball in question led to the goal that would be decisive in the match. Both times, the cheater's excuse was pathetic. At least Maradona's "hand of God" line was somewhat amusing only because it showed just what an arrogant punk he truly was. Henry's excuse: "I'm not the referee." That's not only weak, it also shows complete contempt for the game and for the principle of justice.

I mean right Thierry, you're not the referee. You're not a cop either, but surely you see the harm in stealing somebody else's property? Or collaborating with a fascist government that invaded your country?

Here's the thing though: In 1986 we all knew Maradona was a creep. He had already been fined for cocaine use and linked to the Neapolitan mafia. Thierry Henry's image, on the other hand, was pretty much squeaky clean prior to tonight. In 2006, he was hailed a role model for children by none other than UNICEF for God' s sake. What are UNICEF going to say now? Hey kids, be a cheater like this guy? You're not the referee?

Henry has been a marketer's dream: Charismatic in several languages, handsome and supremely talented. No wonder he ended up as the poster boy for so many corporations and their products.

And there you have it. Money talks. The monetary difference between France and Ireland participating in the World Cup is close to $2 billion in revenues. FIFA is clearly corrupt so it isn't that big of a leap to say this thing reaches all the way up to Sepp Blatter's shiny little office in Zurich. Sadly, there is little justice in soccer. Argentina went on to win the 1986 World Cup. West Germany and Austria blatantly fixed a match at the 1982 World Cup with virtually no repercussions. There are many other examples. So don't expect France to suffer any kind of karmic comeuppance in South Africa next summer. With our luck they'll end up winning the whole tournament.

Photo taken from unicef.org without permission.

Thought you'd never ask. First let's take a look at the teams that are already through as of Monday, Oct. 12, 2009 (in no particular order):

South Africa, Germany, Spain, Italy, Serbia, Holland, Denmark, England, Mexico, USA, Brazil, Paraguay, Chile, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Australia, Japan, South Korea, North Korea.

Serbia is quite possibly the biggest surprise there. The Beli Orlovi played in their first qualifiers as an independent nation and obviously made it count, finishing ahead of 2006 World Cup finalists France. Then there is Chile, who were last seen on this stage in 1998. The Roja are a young side with few recognizable stars and only a handful of players who earn their money in Europe. But they nevertheless managed to beat Argentina twice and Brazil once in qualifiers and may very well be a force to be reckoned with in South Africa next year.

Beyond that, the following teams have qualified for, or are (in one instance) already playing in tie-breakers:

Bahrain, New Zealand, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Russia, France, Ireland, Switzerland, Greece, Slovakia, Costa Rica, Honduras.

Among these, Switzerland or Greece, Slovakia, Costa Rica or Honduras could still qualify directly depending on the outcome of the last round of games in their group. Bahrain and New Zealand are in the middle of their tie-breaker. The first leg, at Bahrain, ended scoreless. The second will take place at New Zealand this Saturday. Of course neither of these teams will have a chance at advancing past the first stage at the actual World Cup, but that's okay. We need them there too.

Now let's take a look at teams who "control their own destiny" in the last round of games. A win and they're in:

Switzerland (host Israel Wednesday. Actually only need a point from that game), Slovakia (play at Poland Wednesday), Argentina (at Uruguay Thursday), Uruguay (host Argentina), Costa Rica (at the U.S. Thursday), Cameroon (at Morocco Saturday), Tunisia (at Mozambique Saturday), Algeria (at Egypt Saturday. According to my calculations as long as Algeria don't lose this game by four goals or more they're in), Egypt (host Algeria Saturday and need to win by four goals or more).

The following teams can still qualify directly but need help:
Greece (must beat Luxembourg and hope Switzerland lose to Israel);
Slovenia (must win at San Marino--what are the chances of that happening?--and hope Slovakia lose or draw at Poland. Yes, Slovenia and Slovakia really are two different countries. I should know, I've been to both places. Honest);
Nigeria (must win at Kenya and hope Tunisia lose or draw at Mozambique);
Gabon (must win at Togo and hope Cameroon lose or draw at Morocco);
Honduras (must win at El Salvador and hope Costa Rica lose or draw at Washington, D.C.);
Ecuador (must win at Chile by five goals or more and hope Uruguay and Argentina draw).

These teams can make the play-off by their own power:
Portugal (must beat Malta at home Wednesday);
Slovenia (must win at San Marino);
Ukraine (must win at Andorra);
Ecuador (must win at Chile).

These teams can make the play-off but need help:
Sweden (must beat Albania and hope Portugal draw or lose to Malta);
Israel (must win at Switzerland and hope Greece somehow lose or draw at home to Luxembourg. Hey, if Switzerland did it...);
Croatia (must win at Kazakhstan and hope Ukraine somehow lose or draw at Andorra);
Czech Republic (must beat Northern Ireland and hope Slovenia somehow lose or draw at San Marino).

The following squads are eliminated all but mathematically, facing essentially insurmountable hurdles just to make the playoffs:
Hungary (must win at Denmark by at least seven goals, hope Portugal lose at home to Malta and Sweden draw or lose to Albania at home);
Venezuela (must win at Brazil by a high score, hope Ecuador lose at Chile and hope Argentina beat Uruguay by a high score. With a 15 goal difference between Uruguay (+9) and Ecuador (-6) this is effectively impossible because it means Venezuela will need to win at Brazil by, say eight goals while hoping Argentina defeat Uruguay by eight goals. Ain't gonna happen);
Northern Ireland (must win at Czech Republic by a wide margin and hope Slovenia lose at San Marino by a wide margin. The combined margin of a N'Ire win and Slovenia loss must be at least seven goals).

Lastly, let's look at some possible playoff ties:
Portugal vs. France
Ukraine vs. Russia
Bosnia vs. Greece
Argentina vs. Honduras
Uruguay vs. Honduras
Ireland vs. Slovakia
Russia vs. Bosnia
Greece vs. Russia

With a 5-1 victory at Wembley, the English national team was able to exorcise the ghosts of its last meeting with Croatia and advance to the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. 5-1? Against effectively the same Croatia side that gave England fits in their 2007 meeting? You could write off last year's 4-1 England victory in Zagreb as a fluke, but this suddenly makes England look pretty good. Compared to their pre Euro 2008 selves, that is.

The victory makes a few things perfectly clear:
1. Steve McClaren was a horrible national team coach (or manager, as he's known over there).
2. David Beckham has absolutely no place in the England lineup and should not be included in the World Cup squad, even as a substitute. Let him play in a ceremonial friendly match for all we care, but for God's sake please declare his national team days over and done with, once and for all.
3. Aaron Lennon is a player on the rise and a star in the making and should be given every chance to flourish fnor England (see item 2, above).
4. Frank Lampard and Steve Gerrard might just be able to form a solid midfield nucleus, provided they aren't asked to do too much. With players like Lennon, Wayne Rooney and (when he's healthy) Theo Walcott, they won't need to.
5. Robert Green may be a serviceable national team goalkeeper, but more skill is needed on defense if England are going to go anywhere at the World Cup.

So much for England.

Coming into today's crucial World Cup qualifying matches, we naively (and, it turns out, wrongly) thought all four British teams plus the Republic of Ireland had a shot to make the main event in South Africa.

How quickly things change! It looks like England will now be the sole representative from the U.K. Wales, a distant longshot to begin with, are now officially eliminated after losing to Russia. Scotland lost at home to the Netherlands and are now done as well. Northern Ireland, which actually had an outside chance to win its group and qualify outright, lost at home to Slovakia and now has a real fight on its hands if it is even going to finish second.

That leaves Ireland, which didn't even play but saw its (slim) chances of winning Group 8 dashed after Italy beat Bulgaria. With a five point lead on the third-placed Bulgarians with two games to play, you might figure Ireland to be in the driver's seat. But a look at the remaining schedule (Ireland host Italy and Montenegro; Bulgaria are at Cyprus and host last-placed Georgia) reveals potential trouble ahead for Giovanni Trapattoni's side. Two points from the last two games are likely needed if Ireland are going to finish second. Montenegro may not have a win yet, but nearly all the games they have played have been close--including a scoreless draw against the Republic one year ago.

Elsewhere, Portugal threw a giant wrench in Hungary's plans, winning at Budapest 1-0. With first-placed Denmark stumbling in Albania (a 1-1 draw) the group is very much up for grabs. The next matchday features a battle between Denmark and second-placed Sweden. The Danes then host Hungary on the last matchday. If Portugal win out (they host Hungary next and finish with Malta at home) they should finish second.

Matters are tight in Group 2 as well, with four teams (Switzerland, Greece, Latvia, Israel) still in the race. Greece somehow managed to drop points at lowly Moldova, while Switzerland and Latvia drew.

In Group 4, Russia and Germany will fight it out for first place in the next matchday. Russia trail by a point. Everybody else is out of it.

Turkey stayed alive with a 1-1 draw at Bosnia, meaning Bosnia will need a result from one of its last two games (at Estonia and home to Spain) if it is to hold off the Turks for second place in Group 5. Spain have won the group after trouncing Estonia. No surprise there.

France barely managed to stay alive with a 1-1 draw at Belgrade. With a four point lead, the Serbs can clinch the group if they win one of their last two games (at home to Romania and at Lithuania). Expect France to win their last two games, against Austria and the Faroe Islands, to finish second.

That brings us up to date in Europe. Stay tuned for the situation in the Americas once those games are completed later tonight.

Photo taken from Aaron Lennon unofficial Web site without permission.

This is not a joke. England are all but qualified and can book their trip to South Africa with a win over Croatia Wednesday. Northern Ireland can win their group with victories in their last two games and a little help. Their neighbors to the south, the Republic of Ireland, have an outside shot of winning their group but should at least finish second. Scotland are in good shape to finish second in Group 9--all they need is a point against Holland on Wednesday or hope that Macedonia and Norway play to a draw.

That leaves Wales, who undoubtedly face the longest odds. John Toshack's team sit a distant fourth in Group 4, nine points behind second-placed Russia with three games to play. But Wales still has a shot at completing the sweep. It needs to start with a decisive victory over Russia at Cardiff on Wednesday. Did I mention that Russia has a +12 goal difference to Wales' -2 and that goal differential is the first tie-breaker, according to FIFA rules? No? Well it is. Okay, so the odds are very long indeed. But Wales can still make it. They need to trounce Russia to narrow the gap in goal difference between the two sides. Then Wales need to win their penultimate group stage match at third-placed Finland on Oct. 10. Not an easy task either. Even less so with goal difference a factor and Finland still very much part of the race for second (especially if Russia lose at Wales, which will need to happen for us to even have these conversations in the first place). They will also need Germany to beat Russia that same day--again, by a high as score as possible. That leaves the final matchday, where Wales have to beat up on Liechtenstein while hoping that Russia lose at Azerbaijan. The chances of all of these taking place are admittedly remote. If Wales beats Russia by anything less than two goals you can all but forget about it. But the possibility does exist.

Of course second place only guarantees a playoff match to get in and with some of the teams likely to finish second (France and Portugal come to mind) these could be some very tough matchups indeed. Or two of the teams could face each other.

But even if only three of the four British clubs qualify, plus Ireland, it will still be a monumental occurrence. When was the last time that happened? Scotland have not been to a major tournament since 1998 and Northern Ireland last saw action in 1982, if memory serves.

Of course there is also the possibility that no British teams will qualify. Northern Ireland face tough matches against Slovakia and at the Czech Republic, Ireland might need a result against World Champions Italy on the penultimate matchday. Scotland can easily miss out and even England can be caught if they lose to Croatia. With the direction British football has taken recently, that might be the more likely outcome.

Image taken from loretoenglish.wikispaces.com without permission.

The international break will be a moment of truth for several national teams, with two matchdays on the calendar over the next week. We have taken a look at the group standings and calendar and provide you the following ranking of most crucial games (in order):

1. Portugal at Denmark, Sept. 5
It may lack the "sexiness" of some of the other match-ups, but Portugal v. Denmark holds the keys to the most competitive group in Europe and one that contains several squads that have been World Cup regulars in years past. Denmark lead the group with 16 points from six games. Portugal are lagging in third place, with just nine points from the same number of matches. The surprising Hungarians sit second with 13 points. They'll host Sweden, who are tied with Portugal on points. So Cristiano Ronaldo and his countrymen (along with a few guys born in Brazil who happen to play for Portugal) need a win. Unlike Denmark, they'll have a full squad at their disposal. The Danes will be without goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen (suspended) and four other starters: Thomas Kahlenberg, Leon Andreasen, Daniel Jensen and Daniel Agger (injuries). It's gonna be big.

2. France at Serbia, Sept. 9
Wednesday's match between the top two teams in Group 7 will likely decide the fate of both. The surprising first-placed Serbs (18 points from seven games) will be fresher after sitting out Saturday's games. France must first get by Romania, a club that gave them fits at last year's Euro but have since fallen apart and are barely a factor in the group (seven points from six games). Assuming they win, Raymond Domenech's men will be two points behind Serbia when they meet Wednesday. With a win in that match, they will in all likelihood take the group (their last two games are at home against the Faroe Islands and Austria). Figure Serbia, playing their first tournament as an independent, non-Yugoslav entity, to be aware of this. So the pressure will be on. Expect fireworks.

3. Slovakia at Czech Republic, Sept. 5
Group 3 is essentially turned on its head, with recent World Cup participants Czech Republic and Poland at the bottom of the table and Slovakia and Northern Ireland at the top. Saturday's "Czechoslovak derby" can begin to turn the tide. The Czechs are absolutely desperate for wins, having just eight points from six games. Slovakia sit first in the group with 15 points. Betweeen them are N'Ire (13 points from seven games), Slovenia (11 from seven) and Poland (10 from six). Oh yeah, the men from Ulster also play at Poland Saturday. But the Czecho-Slovak battle is the big one. With a win, Slovakia move a giant step closer to their first participation in a major tournament. A draw does the Czechs no favors either, but leaves Slovakia vulnerable to moves from Poland and Northern Ireland, whom they face at Belfast Wednesday.

4. Brazil at Argentina, Sept. 5
It undoubtedly pits the two best teams against each other, so why is this only the fourth-best (or most crucial, whatever) match? Simple: CONMEBOL is very top-heavy. While they currently sit fourth (the last automatic qualifier), Argentina still have some margin for error if they don't get a result tomorrow. Then Thursday's game at Paraguay simply becomes all important. So while Diego Maradona's side face pressure, it's not a do-or-die thing. Of course, you'll still want to watch any game between these two sides. It's sure to be a spectacle either way.

5. Macedonia at Scotland, Sept. 5
The Netherlands won Group 9 a long time ago but second place is entirely up for grabs, and Scotland are in the thick of it. They'll need to beat Macedonia tomorrow to have any chance though. If they do, they'll likely still need a result against the Dutch on the final matchday Wednesday (only five teams in this group)--or hope that Norway (currently one point behind Alex McLeish's side) and Macedonia somehow take each other out of it. But Holland will likely be resting starters Wednesday and Norway face a potentially tough game at Iceland tomorrow. So if they win tomorrow, Scotland might just be in the driver's seat.

6. Turkey at Bosnia, Sept. 9
If they win at lowly Armenia Saturday, Bosnia can effectively clinch second place in Group 5 when they host Turkey on Wednesday. With a win in that game, they would then put seven points between themselves and Turkey with two matchdays remaining. Of course, Bosnia have been close to qualifying for tournaments before (well, once, for Euro 2008) and ended up falling apart down the stretch. And second place is no guarantee to advancement either. (In case you're wondering: First place is not really an option seeing as Spain hold the lead in the group with a perfect 18 points from six games). But this would be a massive accomplishment for Bosnian football.

7. Mexico at Costa Rica, Sept. 6
Mexico are resurgent under new coach Javier Aguirre and have back-to-back victories against the hated Gringos to boost their fragile egos going into this crucial qualifier at San Jose. La Sele lead the group with 12 points from six games and are a particularly difficult foe on their home turf (it is actual fieldturf, too). But with just nine points, Mexico sit fourth and need a result. If they get it, they can look to the ensuing home games against Honduras and El Salvador to book their ticket to South Africa. If they lose, they'll face yet more soul searching.

8. Russia at Wales, Sept. 9
The moment of truth for Wales, who face extremely long odds even if they do win this game. Assuming (big leap of faith here) that second-placed Russia win at Liechtenstein Saturday, Wales will be nine points in arrears with three games to play. But these are three games that Russia can clearly lose; besides Wednesday's game at Millenium Stadium, they host Germany Oct. 10 and play at Azerbaijan Oct. 14. John Toschak's squad play at Finland and Liechtenstein. There is still hope for a Welsh appearance at South Africa, but it's a feint one.

9. Cameroon at Gabon, Sept. 5
Speaking of moments of truth, the Lions Indomptables have their backs to the wall with just one point from their first two games. They sit fourth and last in Africa's Group A, albeit with a game in hand over the second- and third-placed teams (Togo and Morocco, respectively). Gabon are first, with a perfect six points from two games. So Cameroon, the first team to really put African soccer on the map back in the 1990 World Cup (though some would argue that Algeria did so first in 1982), need a result. Actually, they need two, perhaps three to qualify directly (they face Gabon again Wednesday). But first thing first for the team now coached by Paul LeGuen, who previously led Paris Saint Germain, Glasgow Rangers and Olympique Lyonnais.

10. Croatia at England, Sept. 9
England have been stellar so far in Group 6: 21 points from seven games. We aren't exactly sure of the math, but it looks as though Fabio Capello's side can clinch a spot in South Africa with a victory Wednesday. That would put to rest the demons of the last time they hosted Croatia. It won't mean England are good, much less a threat to win anything next June, but it will be a nice accomplishment for a team that has had very little to cheer about since, well, 1966.

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The U.S. Men's National Team took an early lead, then gave up a quick equalizer before succumbing to the winning goal eight minutes from time in their World Cup qualifier at Estadio Azteca yesterday. The win by Mexico puts its national team back on track to qualify for the 2010 World Cup. The Yanks will probably still qualify anyway, but they would have loved to have managed a victory (or at least a draw) at the Azteca, a place where they have famously never won in 19 attempts. Back north of the border, the blame game is already in full effect, a further sign that the U.S. is finally taking its rightful place among soccer nations. (And about freakin' time too!)

The fingers point in the usual directions: certain prominent players (Landon Donovan, the team's best outfield player and captain Carlos Bocanegra are popular targets), the referee and of course the losing team's head coach, Bob Bradley. We will focus on the latter.

Before we do, a quick explanation is in order: Unlike many U.S.-based soccer writers we are not naive (or American) enough to think the coach has as much influence in the sport of soccer as he does in, say, basketball or (American) football. In those sports (and to an extent also in baseball) the coach can literally diagram every play and defensive formation should he choose to do so, leaving the players with the task of "executing." Obviously, soccer is different; most of the action comes from the flow of play and at the impetus of players on the field ("the pitch"). So the coach's role is more limited: motivating players and staff, choosing the starting lineup and formation and timing and identifying the proper substitutes. (Maybe this is why he is called a "manager" in the U.K. Or maybe that's because the word coach is used for buses. Whatever, off topic).

But it was in the last of these areas, substitutions, where Mexico head coach Javier Aguirre bested Bradley.

Perhaps (over)reacting to criticism of his substitution policy during the Confederations Cup final loss to Brazil, Bradley went to his bench relatively early, in the 58th minute. He did so in dramatic fashion, in one fell swoop bringing in Benny Feilhaber and Stuart Holden for Ricardo Clark and Brian Ching, respectively.

The Ching move was necessary. The veteran forward had done absolutely nothing in the match until then. You could count on one hand how many times he touched the ball. And Holden, his Houston Dynamo teammate, was a good choice to reinvigorate the U.S. attack, which had been largely dormant since Davies' goal. Holden can collect the ball in midfield and cause havoc on both wings. He was exactly what the U.S. game needed. Sure enough, he found Davies on a cross shortly after coming in but the Sochaux forward missed it. The chance would be the U.S.' best, last effort to score a second goal.

But the Clark move made no sense. Clark (another Houston Dynamo player) had been one of the Yanks' most consistent, active players in the first 57 minutes. He did an excellent job in defensive midfield, where he was repeatedly able to disrupt Mexico’s efforts at buildup. Rather than remove Clark, Bradley should have spelled his son, Michael, who was all but invisible to that point. The streaky Feilhaber promptly did nothing, which is not entirely (Bob) Bradley's fault. But failing to remove his son from the game was.

After Aguirre countered with Nery Castillo in the 72nd minute, the game took on a different tilt. The Mexican side was able to find space, especially on the wings. Everton goalkeeper Tim Howard was able to bail the Yanks out once or twice but you could tell the noose was tightening.

Bradley went to his bench again in the 76th minute, bringing recent Hull City signing Jozy Altidore for Davies. This move was a) premature, b) the wrong one and c) ineffective. Altidore was not able to do anything in his brief time on the pitch, though in fairness he barely got any service either.
Why did Bradley feel the need to go for the win by bringing in another attacker when his team was hanging on for dear life and a draw would have been a great result? Why didn't he bring in Jonathan Spector or Jonathan Bornstein or Jose Francisco Torres (more on him in a minute) to shore up the left side of the defense or midfield? With 12 minutes plus stoppage time left on the clock, the U.S. was stretched to the breaking point with nowhere left to turn.

Aguirre saw his chance and he grabbed it, bringing in Miguel Sabah in minute 78. Three minutes later, Sabah scored the winning goal after the Yanks' left side gave way again. Game, set and match.

A few words on the starting lineups. Carlos Bocanegra is not a left back and should not be starting at that position in a game of this magnitude. We realize Bradley doesn't have many other options at this position (though Spector, a player West Ham United fans may have heard of, is all but begging for a chance) but Boca is simply not up to the task. In fact, the U.S. captain has not played very well at center back either. Both Mexico goals can be traced to mistakes on his part.

Lastly, WHY did Bradley not start Torres? The young Mexican-American has played well in his few national team appearances. He earns his money for a Mexican league club with whom he regularly visits the Azteca. From his position in central midfield, Torres could have been the lynchpin for the U.S. attack. Or, he could have replaced Michael Bradley either in place of Feilhaber or as the final substitute. Either way, leaving him out was a crime.