Football Champions

For the first time in nine months we are facing a weekend with no top flight soccer action in the northern hemisphere. (We're talking men's professional soccer here and no, Major League Soccer does not qualify as top flight). What better time to take a look at the main event of this summer's soccer schedule, the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship (aka Euro 2012)?

With its geopolitical influence waning, its economy in shatters and its currency union on the fritz, the "old continent" at least gets to hold what it can rightfully claim as the most competitive soccer tournament in the world. Unfortunately, "most competitive" does not always mean "most entertaining" or "most memorable." With few exceptions (van Basten, Bierhoff, Rehhagel) there are no great sagas that emerge from Euro tournaments the way they do from World Cups or even club soccer competitions. There are no equivalents to the Maracana miracle (Brazil, 1950) the "Wunder von Bern" (Miracle from Bern, Switzerland, 1954), football coming "home" (England, 1966), Showdown in Seville (Spain, 1982), "hand of god" (Mexico, 1986), etc etc. For whatever reason, the exploits of the Euro are quickly forgotten. Despite the high level of competition, or perhaps because of its resulting parity, Euro games very rarely enter the annals of the sport's history. In many ways this is a shame, or perhaps it is entirely fitting given the issues facing Europe at the moment.

Somebody else can pontificate on this at greater length should they so choose. For now, let's keep the focus on the field -- which in soccer is called the "pitch" (lesson number one for American readers looking to sound knowledgeable at Irish pubs this summer). Here, then, are some fearless forecasts for the Euro 2012:

1. Germany will either make the final or exit at the group stage. With one exception, this has been the pattern since 1972. That one exception was in 1988 when (West) Germany hosted the tournament and lost to the van Basten/Gullit-led Dutch juggernaut in the semifinals, so consider that an anomaly for those reasons. Apparently even Germans can succumb to pressure when they have to play in front of home crowds. Which leads us to...

2. Unless the host country is world class, it probably won't go anywhere. This is a stark contrast to the World Cup, where South Africa just became the first host not to qualify for the elimination round. Just two host countries, Portugal in 2004 and France in 1984, made the finals and just one (France) won it. Both of those clubs were at the top of their game at the time: France was a semi finalist at (and probably should have won) the 1982 and 1986 World Cups. Led by Michel Platini, the French played beautiful soccer, featuring prominently in the very best games of that era (that would be the 1982 semifinal against West Germany, still considered a traumatic event in France, and a 1986 quarterfinal victory over Brazil, still the best game this blogger has viewed in his lifetime). The Portugal side from 2004 featured Luis Figo, Deco, Cristiano Ronaldo and others and Porto won the UEFA Champions League that year. Besides those two, only two teams others won elimination round matches: England in 1996 and the Netherlands in 2000 (true story. Prior to 1996 the first "elimination round" was the semifinal). So things do not look good for Poland and the Ukraine and if you're a gambling man (or woman) you may not want to place bets on either club.

3. England will not win. This is like saying the sky is blue, but it's still worth pointing out. Besides, in the Ukraine the sky isn't always blue. Isn't that where Chernobyl is? Anyway, England may have looked impressive in qualifying but the runner-up in their group was Montenegro for God's sake. Montenegro! Since when is that even a country? Anyway, England don't face the most challenging competition in the group stage either, with France, Sweden and the aforementioned Ukraine. Consider their chances of surviving the group very good. But that will probably be the end of the road. The runner up in England's group D face the winner of group C, which will probably be Spain. If they win Group D, England would be most likely to face Italy, which we just can't see ending well either. But again, you knew this already and aren't holding out any unrealistic hopes, right? Right???

4. The semifinals will probably feature at least one team nobody was expecting. Since the Euro tourney expanded to include a quarterfinal, in 1996, there has been one of these each time except 2000. In '96 you had the Czech Republic and France, in '08 Greece, and Russia and Turkey last time. Who will it be this year? Probably not either of the hosts, if history is to be believed, and not England. That still leaves plenty of teams, such as Ireland (wouldn't that be fitting after the 2010 debacle vs. France), Russia (again), Greece (again) or maybe Croatia. Greece would be nice for obvious reasons, but if they're back on the drachma by then one would hope the bonuses get paid in euros.

Yes, these are strange days in Europe, but the more things change the more they (often) stay the same. Germany is pretty predictable at this tournament, as we have seen. If you're looking for a safe bet, invest in US Treasuries. If you're looking to gamble, bet on Germany if they advance to the elimination round. But it will still be gambling. If the recent history of Europe (both soccer and otherwise) is any guide, patterns and paradigms are bound to change, often with no notice. They play these games for a reason and nobody, least of all us, can tell you with any degree if certainty what is going to happen. Except England won't win. We're pretty sure of that.

Chelsea fans don't want to hear this, but today their club faces a monumental task that will in all likelihood fall short. The reference here is of course to the return leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinal with Barcelona that takes place at Camp Nou stadium.

Blues shocked just about everybody with their 1-nil victory in last week's first leg. It was a gutsy performance from Roberto DiMatteo's men and one that supplied (temporary) payback for the bitter defeat at the same stage of the same tournament three years ago.

Alas, unlike in 2009 Chelsea were not the better team on the day. Barca dominated possession and in the first 45 minutes saw one shot carom off the crossbar and another headed off the line. In first half stoppage time, almost as an afterthought, Didier Drogba put the home side up. Only through a tremendous defensive effort, fantastic goalkeeping and some good luck (missed chances by Adriano and Sanchez, a stoppage time ball off the post) were Chelsea able to hang on for the win.

Over 180 minutes one side's run of luck usually cancels out and Chelsea are simply not good enough to make up the difference. Pep Guardiola will take advantage of the additional space supplied by the Camp Nou pitch to stretch a tired Blues defense that, let's not forget, is anchored by a pair of 32-year olds. While it is true that Barca have not played up to their usual high standards lately, the Catalan side's poor run of form gives them something to prove. After Sunday's bitter home loss to Real Madrid, Barca are all but assured of losing the Liga crown to their archrivals. With only the cup final on May 25 on the agenda, resources have been freed up to defend the Champions League title with renewed vigor. So expect the blaugrana to come out fighting. And expect Chelsea to eventually -- probably in the first 45 minutes -- to yield a goal. The second half should then see the floodgates open.

A bit of a grandiose prediction, it is true. But Chelsea have struggled for much of the season. While that may not have been a reflection of their true quality, they are surely playing over their heads a bit now. Over two legs a team like that will succumb to a superior opponent. Barca, even after Sunday's humiliation, are that opponent.

Hopefully that title got your attention. The match-ups have been drawn and the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 is set. Using our Top 25 ranking as a guide, we will tell you in no uncertain terms exactly who will advance to the quarterfinals. This process has worked out brilliantly for us in the past, so why not go to the well once more?



The draw itself was, well, interesting. If UEFA was anywhere near as corrupt as FIFA we'd all be screaming about the process being rigged, the way it so obviously was in the recently-conducted World Cup draw. However, UEFA is slightly less corrupt than FIFA (think a municipality in Moldova versus Kabul's central government), so slightly fewer of us are complaining. For my part, I will say that it's uncanny how both organizations (FIFA and UEFA) just so happened to get exactly the draw that stands to benefit their TV ratings the most. But enough about that.

Admittedly this might have waited until the latest version of the Top 25 is released Monday morning. But the draw was today so it's only fair that we use the data available to us at this time. Here goes:

Barcelona (top 25 at time of this ranking: 1) vs. Stuttgart (unranked)
Here you have a team that has lost but once all season and won a tough group against a club that barely qualified out of the worst group of them all. An absolute no-brainer: Barca's the pick. Stuttgart will likely wish they had been relegated to the Europa League after seeing this draw.

Girondins Bordeaux (2) vs. Olympiakos (13)
This one, too, is an easy choice. Bordeaux hit a brief rough patch a few weeks ago but emerged unscathed: first place in their Champions League group, first place in Ligue Un. The match-up with Olympiakos, while not as easy as, say, Barcelona's, should not pose a serious challenge to a team of Bordeaux' caliber. Which is too bad, really, because we think the Greek side have potential. Granted their Champions League group was not very difficult but they've done well domestically (first place in the Greek Super League). They've met their match here though. Bordeaux should take this one with relative ease.

Chelsea (3) vs. Inter Milan (6)
Now things get interesting. On one hand you have Chelsea, a team that we considered the best in the world as recently as a fortnight ago. Opposing them are Inter Milan, who peaked at number 2 but have since fallen back to earth. Who will win? Chelsea have too much fire power. Inter are a bit fickle. Blues will win, but it could be close.

Manchester United (4) vs. AC Milan (9)
Who could have imagined that David Beckham will face his old club in the UEFA Champions League? It's almost as outlandish as, say, England being drawn into a World Cup group with the U.S.! Sadly for Becks, his team will lose both encounters: against Man United here and against the Yanks June 12. Yes we went there. What'cha gonna do about it?

Real Madrid (5) vs. Olympique Lyonnais (unranked)
If this match-up had taken place a month or two ago it would have been a real cracker. Now however, there is a clear favorite: the club from Spain's capital city. L'OL started very strongly to the season but have had a horrible time of it recently. They even dropped out of the Top 25 altogether, something that has not happened in the two plus years I've been keeping the rankings. In France's Ligue Un they are now a mid-table side, if you can believe that. This match-up will just pile on their misery. Real to advance.

Sevilla (7) vs. CSKA Moscow (unranked)
We were looking forward to seeing Sevilla tested by a top club outside of Spain. We'll have to wait a bit longer. CSKA Moscow, for all their charms, are not even the best team in Russia (that honor goes to Rubin Kazan, who made a lot of noise in Europe the past couple of months and will surely be a force to be reckoned with in the Europa League). Sevilla are tough; they defeated Real Madrid and, uh, that's about it. Both teams emerged from weak groups (very weak in Sevilla's case). The team from Andalucia will prevail but what happens after that is anybody's guess.

Arsenal (8) vs. Porto (11)
Last year Porto had a great run that very nearly took them to the semifinals. Unfortunately for them, Cristiano Ronaldo scored one of the nicest goals you'll see and Man U advanced in their place. This year, will a different English team bring about Porto's ouster? Yes, Arsenal will. But it will be close again. Ultimately, the skill, speed and talent of Arsene Wenger's side will spell doom for the Portuguese club--just like Man United did for them last year. But if you were going to bet on an upset, this might just be the one to pick.

Bayern Munich (10) vs. Fiorentina (unranked)
After a slow start to the season Bayern Munich have been on a tear and find themselves at a season-high 10th spot in our top 25 ranking. Fiorentina had a few moments and were most recently sighted in the Top 25 on Nov. 9, when they were 17th. Unfortunately, the Florentine side have few quality victories to their name and were undoubtedly the beneficiaries of Liverpool's disintegration. So this one should not be close. However Bayern are a fickle bunch and who knows what will happen to them between now and Feb. 17. By that point they could be out of the Top 25 again. Or maybe not: the team has confidence now and after the victory at Turin know they are capable of great things. Regardless of what happens in the next two months, they should be able to summon the Entschlossenheit to get past Fiorentina. I love these German words for which there is no real English equivalent, don't you?