Football Champions

Well, I got an 0-fer on my last set of picks, which is so depressing I won’t even bother to go over them (though, RSL did pull out a tie that I’m pretty happy about). Instead, I thought I’d spend some extra time on my scariness ratings. This time I present the older style along with a new (improved?) version.

Traditional Scariness

Team	Scariness	Rating
DC United	2.2	1 (+1)
Kansas City	2.06	2 (+2)
Toronto	1.96	3 (+4)
Colorado	1.92	4 (-3)
New England	1.86	5 (0)
Dallas	1.62	6 (0)
New York	1.42	7 (-4)
Houston	1.2	8 (+4)
Chivas	1.14	9 (-1)
Chicago	0.94	10 (+3)
Los Angeles	0.92	11 (-1)
Salt Lake	0.8	12 (-1)
Columbus	0.4	13 (-4)

Adjusted Scariness

Team	Adj Scariness	Rating	Diff from Scariness Rating
Kansas City	2.74	1	+1
New York	2.62	2	+5
DC United	2.35	3	-2
Chivas	2.18	4	+5
Toronto	2.15	5	-2
Houston	1.65	6	+2
Colorado	1.61	7	-3
New England	1.61	7	-2
Salt Lake	1.46	9	+3
Los Angeles	1.16	10	+1
Chicago	1	11	+1
Dallas	0.8	12	-6
Columbus	-0.12	13	0

The Adjusted Scariness probably deserves a bit of explanation:

• For each game, I add up the team’s points from a game, the opponents PPG average for the last five games, and add a bonus point for playing on the road, then divide by two to create a value for the game.


• I add the goal differential to the value for each game, to create a modified value.


• Finally, I take a weighted average of the last five modified values (using weightings of .5, .7, .9, 1.1, and 1.3).

This takes a little bit longer, but gives a clearer picture (I think). There are still some surprises there (how did Chivas and RSL climb so high?), but I think I’m getting closer. I’m still looking for feedback, so please let me know what you think. (Oh, this is getting hairy enough that I don’t expect to do it for any other leauges.)