Week 10 Scariness Ratings

I did fairly well on last week's pick, and I considered my adjusted scariness numbers1 in making them, so I’m feeling better about them.




Adjusted Scariness











































































Team Adj Scariness Rating (Last Week)
DC United 3.11 1 (3)
Chivas 2.85 2 (4)
Kansas City 2.74 3 (1)
Houston 2.73 4 (6)
New York 1.86 5 (2)
Dallas 1.78 6 (12)
New England 1.61 7 (7)
Salt Lake 1.46 8 (9)
Toronto 1.18 9 (5)
Colorado 1.01 10 (7)
Chicago 0.62 11 (11)
Los Angeles 0.39 12 (10)
Columbus - 0.25 13 (13)





One thing that I’m getting used to is that there’s a lot of movement on these charts each week. I’m still a bit puzzled by some of the numbers (why in the world is Chivas rated number two??) but overall, I think I’m coming to peace with things.




1 The Adjusted Scariness probably deserves a bit of explanation:


  • For each game, I add up the team’s points from a game, the opponents PPG average for the last five games, and add a bonus point for playing on the road, then divide by two to create a value for the game.

  • I add the goal differential to the value for each game, to create a modified value.

  • Finally, I take a weighted average of the last five modified values (using weightings of .5, .7, .9, 1.1, and 1.3).

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